Bondholders Awarded €1.33 billion in GDP-Linked Securities Dispute with Argentina, Supported by Brattle Expert Testimony

In a lawsuit concerning gross domestic product (GDP)-linked securities issued by Argentina in 2005 and 2010, Brattle worked on behalf of four institutional and corporate investors, which alleged that Argentina manipulated published GDP to avoid paying over one billion euros to the securities holders. A Brattle team provided analyses and testimony concerning the English law-governed securities in London’s High Court proceedings.

Background

In April 2022, Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan retained Brattle on behalf of four institutional and corporate investors – Palladian Partners LP, HBK Master Fund LP, Hirsh Group LLC, and Virtual Emerald – that held close to half of Argentina’s GDP-linked, euro-denominated securities issued in 2005 and 2010.

The four funds sued Argentina in 2019, accusing the Republic of rebasing published GDP in order to avoid payments under GDP-linked securities. The four institutional and corporate investors also claimed that Argentina’s failure to publish GDP under an existing series amounted to a breach of contract.

A Brattle team, led by Principal Richard Caldwell, was tasked with analyzing the provisions in the securities. They assessed whether the applicable conditions would have been met for a reference year – specifically, 2013 – and, if so, determined the necessary payment under the securities. The Brattle team also calculated the interest payments owed to bondholders. Mr. Caldwell testified at trial.

Outcome

In April 2023, London High Court Judge Simon Picken ruled in favor of the four institutional and corporate investors, ordering Argentina to pay €1.33 billion plus interest – an amount based on Mr. Caldwell’s calculations. The judgment was in favor of all securities holders; €643 million of the total payment will go directly to the four funds. Argentina is expected to appeal the ruling.