Brattle Report Informs State Energy Plan for Maine to Reach Its 2040 100% Clean Electricity Goal

Brattle consultants recently prepared a report for the Maine Governor’s Energy Office (GEO) to inform the state’s Energy Plan. The report, “Maine Pathways to 2040: Insights and Analysis,” coauthored with Evolved Energy Research (EER), identifies several pathways for a plan that ensures affordable, reliable, and clean energy, supports the growth of Maine’s economy, and meets greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction requirements.

The report highlights several key high-level results and policy implications:

• The widespread electrification of end uses – particularly transportation and heating – is a key strategy for achieving Maine’s clean energy and climate goals. Electrification will produce significant load growth: Maine’s annual total electricity consumption is projected to more than double – from 12 TWh in 2023 to 23 TWh in 2040 – and peak electricity demand will nearly triple by 2040 driven by space heating.
• Maine’s planned renewable energy procurements will meet most of Maine’s clean electricity demand by 2040. Maine is making strides with its commitments to renewable energy generation projects, and must continue. Maine will also need to expand its transmission system to connect these new resources, balance renewables output, and maintain reliability. Maine must also clearly define which energy resources qualify as “clean” beyond renewable energy technologies to ensure it can plan, develop, and maintain them in an orderly way to meet the 2040 100% clean electricity target.
• Cost-effective power sector decarbonization involves high renewables, storage, and load flexibility – plus thermal generation (with clean, carbon-neutral fuels), used sparingly. In the Core pathway, dispatchable clean thermal provides just the last 5–10% of energy (but substantial capacity) to cover infrequent periods of extended renewable shortfall.
• Overall energy supply costs in the coming decades will remain generally stable; electricity expenditures will rise as electricity substitutes for fuels as Maine’s primary source of energy, but are offset by savings from decreased fossil fuel use.
• While heat pumps work well in cold conditions, backup fuel-fired heating (with low-carbon fuel) can reduce winter electricity demand peaks and therefore electricity costs. However, fueling, maintaining, and replacing the fuel-fired systems would offset most of the electric cost savings. To dispatch these dual-fuel systems efficiently, integrated controls, thermostat control programs, and innovative rate design will be needed.
• Load flexibility – particularly for flexible EV charging loads – will play a key role, helping to limit infrastructure needs for supply, transmission, and distribution resources, and therefore keeping costs down. It is important to develop the capability to manage flexible load now so that they can build experience for the future.

The Brattle authors included Principals Dr. Dean Murphy and Michael Hagerty, Senior Energy Associate Dr. Goksin Kavlak, and Energy Associate Dr. Noah Rauschkolb. The full report is available below.